Sometimes it is nice to see film experts admit they got it wrong.
That is exactly what has happened with Michael, as Gold Derby has revisited its earlier assessment of the Michael Jackson biopic and its chances during the upcoming awards season.
In a new article titled “‘Michael’ star Jaafar Jackson moonwalks into Golden Globes, Actor Awards contention,” Gold Derby openly acknowledges that its original predictions about Jaafar Jackson and the film did not age particularly well.
And, to be fair, they admit it.
“When it comes to Michael, we may have hit the wrong note,” Gold Derby writes.
The publication then goes back to its original analysis, published when the film was released, in which it assessed the awards prospects of the two actors portraying Michael Jackson.
Gold Derby wrote at the time:
“First, let’s acknowledge that the two actors splitting duty as Michael — Jaafar Jackson (Michael’s nephew and Jermaine’s son) plays the older version, while Juliano Valdi portrays the Jackson 5-era spark plug — both have undeniable charisma and performing chops as they uncannily recreate Michael’s signature moves. Still, neither will be in the Oscar mix…”
Well… things have changed.
Gold Derby now writes:
“We stand corrected.”
That sentence is particularly satisfying considering how many early reactions to Michael attempted to dismiss its awards potential before audiences had even had the opportunity to see what Jaafar Jackson had done with the role.
According to Gold Derby, Michael has since “bucked negative reviews,” become a record-setting billion-dollar phenomenon and, perhaps most importantly for the awards prediction website, remained a viable contender across a number of above-the-line Oscar categories.
The current Gold Derby predictions place Michael at No. 16 for Best Picture, while Jaafar Jackson sits at No. 10 for Best Actor.
Colman Domingo, who portrays Joe Jackson, is currently ranked No. 8 for Best Supporting Actor.
But the predictions go well beyond those three categories.
Gold Derby currently has Michael at No. 7 for Best Costume Design, No. 7 for Best Makeup and Hairstyling and No. 6 for Best Sound. The film is also listed at No. 10 for Film Editing, No. 14 for Best Casting, No. 14 for Production Design and No. 15 for Best Original Screenplay.
The publication also has the film at No. 16 for Best Picture.
There is, of course, a very long way to go before Oscar nominations are announced, and these are prediction models rather than nominations or official Academy positions. Gold Derby itself makes that clear.
But the movement is significant.
Jaafar Jackson enters the Golden Globes conversation
Where things become even more interesting is with the precursor awards.
Gold Derby says Jaafar Jackson has “cemented himself as a major contender” in its Golden Globe and Actor Awards tracking.
The website currently places Jaafar at No. 4 in the Golden Globe Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor race, with a prediction of an 83.8% chance of receiving a nomination according to its model.
Gold Derby is currently tracking Michael in the Musical/Comedy categories, while noting that Lionsgate has not yet confirmed which Golden Globe category the film will ultimately be submitted in.
The article also points out that recent musical biopics such as A Complete Unknown, Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody have largely competed in the Drama categories.
Gold Derby believes the Musical/Comedy route could provide a different awards path for Michael.
At the Actor Awards, Jaafar is currently sitting at No. 6, with Gold Derby giving him a 34.6% nomination probability. The publication notes that the category is expected to contain five nominees, meaning Jaafar is currently right on the edge of the predicted field.
Again, these numbers should be viewed for what they are: an indication of where one awards-tracking outlet currently sees the race, not a guarantee of what voters will ultimately do.
From “neither will be in the Oscar mix” to Top 10
And this is perhaps the part worth remembering.
When Michael arrived, Gold Derby’s assessment was that neither Jaafar Jackson nor Juliano Valdi would be in the Oscar mix.
Several months later, Jaafar Jackson is sitting inside Gold Derby’s Top 10 Best Actor predictions.
The film itself is inside its Top 20 Best Picture predictions, while multiple technical categories are also being tracked.
That doesn’t mean an Oscar nomination is assured. It doesn’t mean Jaafar will ultimately receive one. The awards season is still developing, campaigns have yet to fully play out and the Academy’s voting has not taken place.
But it does mean the conversation has changed considerably.
And we have to give Gold Derby credit for saying so themselves.
They could simply have moved on and quietly changed their predictions.
Instead, they went back to their original article, reproduced their earlier assessment and quite plainly wrote:
“We stand corrected.”
Fair enough.
For Michael Jackson fans who watched the predictions surrounding Michael change almost as quickly as the film continued to break records, there is something rather enjoyable about seeing the experts who initially counted Jaafar Jackson out having to reconsider.
As Gold Derby itself puts it, Jaafar is now “trending in the right direction.”
For now, we’ll see where that direction leads.
