Variety has never exactly been the friendliest publication when it comes to Michael Jackson, and its coverage surrounding Michael has often left Michael Jackson fans questioning whether the film was ever being given a fair shot.
So, perhaps surprisingly, Variety’s latest 2027 Oscars predictions give us something worth talking about.
The publication has now started placing Michael in several Oscar categories and, even more interestingly, Jaafar Jackson has officially entered the conversation.
Jaafar Jackson Makes the List
This is the biggest change.
In Variety’s initial predictions, Jaafar Jackson wasn’t listed among the contenders for Best Actor. But in its updated predictions, dated August 13, 2026, Jaafar has appeared at #7 in the “Next in Line” section for Best Actor for his performance as Michael Jackson in Michael.
The current list has Tom Cruise, Matt Damon, Andrew Scott, John Malkovich and John Turturro occupying the five predicted nomination spots, with Ryan Gosling at #6, followed by Jaafar at #7.
That may not sound like a major endorsement, but considering Jaafar wasn’t even there initially, it is certainly a noticeable shift.
And let’s be honest: seeing Jaafar Jackson’s name in a Variety Oscar prediction after everything surrounding this film is quite something.
The important thing is that he is now in the conversation.
And “Michael” Is Showing Up Elsewhere
Jaafar isn’t the only Michael presence in Variety’s predictions.
The film is currently predicted as a potential nominee in four additional categories:
Costume Design
Marci Rodgers — Michael
Film Editing
John Ottman, Harry Yoon, Conrad Buff IV and Tom Cross — Michael
Makeup and Hairstyling
Michael
Sound
Michael
That means Variety is currently seeing Michael as a possible five-category Oscar contender, counting Jaafar’s Best Actor placement.
And that is where things get particularly interesting.
Because while Variety appears willing to acknowledge the film’s technical achievements, there is still a little bit of that familiar Variety-style shade when it comes to Jaafar.
Putting him at #7, rather than among its five predicted nominees, is certainly not the strongest possible endorsement. But it is also difficult to ignore that he has moved from not being listed at all to being one of the actors Variety believes could potentially break into the race.
For a film that has faced plenty of skepticism and negative noise from sections of the media, that movement matters.
The Technical Categories Could Be “Michael’s” Strength
Perhaps the most telling part of Variety’s predictions is where it believes Michael could have the strongest Oscar chances.
Costume Design makes obvious sense. Recreating Michael Jackson’s iconic looks across different periods of his life is no small task, and the film has a huge visual legacy to draw from.
Film Editing is another interesting inclusion. A Michael Jackson biopic covering such an enormous career has an immense amount of material to work with, and shaping decades of music, performances and personal history into a coherent film is a considerable editorial challenge.
Then there is Makeup and Hairstyling, another category where the transformation of the cast into recognizable versions of Michael and the Jackson family could attract attention.
And finally, Sound.
For a film centered around one of the greatest performers and recording artists in music history, sound is obviously going to be a major part of the cinematic experience.
So perhaps Variety is beginning to recognize what fans have been saying all along: Michael is not simply a movie relying on Michael Jackson’s name.
There is an enormous amount of work happening behind the scenes.
But This Is Still Variety
Let’s not get carried away.
These are predictions, not nominations.
Variety does not decide who gets an Oscar nomination. The Academy does.
The 99th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027, with nominations scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027.
There is still a long road between an August prediction and an Oscar nomination.
And there is certainly enough time for the narrative around Michael to change again.
But that is exactly why this update is worth highlighting.
For months, fans have watched the media conversation around Michael with understandable suspicion. There has been no shortage of criticism, skepticism and attempts to frame the film negatively before audiences have even had the chance to fully judge it for themselves.
Now, one of the industry’s most influential awards publications is putting the film’s name into multiple Oscar conversations.
Even if there is still a little shade attached to Jaafar’s placement.
Let the Work Speak
At the end of the day, none of this should matter as much as the finished film.
If Jaafar delivers the performance fans and early audiences are hoping for, then the conversation can grow beyond predictions. If the costumes, makeup, editing and sound genuinely stand out, the Academy voters will have the opportunity to recognize that work.
And that is ultimately what Michael deserves: to be judged on the work.
Not on decades of media narratives surrounding Michael Jackson.
Not on preconceived opinions about the Jackson family.
Not on whether certain journalists personally like the subject.
The 2027 Oscars will tell us much more than Variety’s prediction lists ever could.
For now, though, we can at least enjoy the irony.
Variety may not be ready to put Jaafar Jackson in its top five yet, but they can no longer leave him off the list.
And Michael is now appearing in four major craft categories as well.
Considering where this movie started in the media conversation, that’s a pretty interesting development.
Now we wait.
The 99th Oscars take place March 14, 2027.
And when the nominations are finally announced on January 21, 2027, we will find out whether the Academy sees what Variety is beginning to see or whether Michael will have to prove everyone wrong once again.
